2.1 Primary Settings
This application uses STOPS’ Special Markets mode, using the STOPS-v2.53 - 06/07/2024 version. “This parameter controls the type of model that STOPS uses to forecast transit ridership. The options are:
Synthetic. This is the default mode and means that STOPS generates estimates of transit ridership from travel patterns contained in the Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP), transit service characteristics from transit schedules, and transit usage obtained from count databases. This form of the model is most similar to conventional ridership forecasting procedures.
Special Markets. The mode is similar to the Synthetic Mode but adds travel demand estimates for special markets that are not well-represented by the CTPP Journey-to-Work (JTW) flows. Example special markets include air passengers and university students. When this option is selected, the user should also specify the Import File Name.
Incremental. In this mode, the user provides an import file containing transit trip table information (and optionally, person travel information). STOPS uses this information to develop person trips and transit trips that closely match the input transit trips for the existing scenario. Forecasts for different years and transit scenarios represent the impact that incremental changes in population, employment, and transit levels-of-service have on transit ridership.
Synthetic + Incremental. This mode is a variation of Mode 2 Special Markets. The difference is the situations in which CTPP JTW flows or special market flows are used. In each case, TAZs which are included in the special market database are identified with a dollar sign in the TAZ name. The difference occurs in cases where a trip travels between a special zone and a regular zone. If Mode 2 is selected, then trips between a special and non-special zone must be included in the special markets trip database. If Mode 4 is selected then trips between a special zone and a regular zone are developed from CTPP data. The former approach is most applicable in cases where a special market survey was conducted covering all origin locations traveling to or from the special activity center (e.g., an airport or university coded with a dollar sign in the TAZ name). The latter approach is applicable when a transit Origin-Destination survey was conducted in a portion of the region but the modeling area needs to be larger to cover the project service area. In this case, TAZs in the transit survey area are coded with a dollar sign in the TAZ name and TAZs outside of the survey area are coded with a “~” (i.e., not “$”) in the TAZ name.” 1
The application uses the 2012-2016 ACS Zones dataset as a basis for estimating trip patterns.
The following table shows the person trip rates per Journey to Work record used by STOPS. It also indicates whether the default values have been changed. “These fields are pre-populated with STOPS defaults for the number of person trips by purpose that are generated for each Census Journey-to-Work record. These default values are based on analyses of the surveys used in the original STOPS calibration. If better local information exists, the user can enter these values on the parameter screen and STOPS will generate person trips according to this refined local information. Each time STOPS runs, it checks to see that each of these values lies within the range of 0.001 and 20. If not, then STOPS resets these trip rates back to the defaults shown in the example.” 2
While these rates are important for Synthetic applications, the local transit survey ‘drives’ the predicted person trips for Incremental STOPS applications.
| Description | Default | This Application | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-car HHs | 1.64 | 1.64 | 0.00 |
| 1-car HHs | 1.43 | 1.64 | 0.21 |
| 2+car HHs | 1.54 | 1.64 | 0.10 |
| Description | Default | This Application | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-car HHs | 6.58 | 6.58 | 0.00 |
| 1-car HHs | 5.65 | 6.58 | 0.93 |
| 2+car HHs | 6.04 | 6.58 | 0.54 |
| Description | Default | This Application | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-car HHs | 3.45 | 3.45 | 0.00 |
| 1-car HHs | 3.26 | 3.45 | 0.19 |
| 2+car HHs | 3.68 | 3.45 | -0.23 |